Posted on November 21, 2016
Mrs May’s Secret – A post-truth Scenario?
Mrs May has a secret – and it’s one she cannot share because it’s her negotiating tactic for Brexit. True she needs to keep quiet if she’s got a good plan as much as she needs to stay mum if she can’t think of anything worthwhile; but I think she has a workable plan which fits with her statements on Brexit to date ( other than Brexit means Brexit of course). …..And if she doesn’t, she could adopt this one!
This is a negotiation she must win and so must Europe, and if she can win whilst avoiding a European meltdown by contaigion then we can all get back to watching Strictly..and worrying about who will takeover from Big Sam.
So let’s assume she wants to retain the single market, get some control over migration ( the sort of deal Cameron hoped to get in February) and dump the European court most of the time. Europe doesn’t want us to leave and there are trading links at risk both ways but if we must do it, do it quickly and take a beating robust enough pour encourager les autres ( essentially, German and French voters)
So this is how it’s done….post-truth.
Mrs May uses her majority in parliament to trigger Article 50 ( having established that triggering is reversible) no later than Spring and begins negotiations about achieving her objectives (the one’s she used to persuade Nissan to stay) which receive private assurances from France and Germany but in public, condemnation from the EU that such objectives cross a red-line.
The French and German governments ( learning nothing from the hapless Osborn) persue during their elections, a relentless tirade of the dire consequences of a Frexit or Grexit which cow the docile north Europeans into returning the usual suspects ( well obviously not Hollande) but not Alternatives for Deutschland or the disgraceful Marine Le Pen.
Once the elections are through, Mrs May emerges from the fray clutching a special agreement for a re-aligned U.K. which recognises the unique position of the UK ( needing to do something about migration, avoid having a new border in Ireland and maintain the Union). The special agreement led by Mutti Merkel on behalf of worried German manufacturers maintains single market access ( with option to develop links worldwide), allows a limited Australian-style migration quota ( which doesn’t really work) and an provides an opt-out over regulation by the European Court.
Mrs May goes to the House and the Country on this negotiation and wins an overwhelming mandate to accept the deal and shortly afterwards applies to de-trigger Article 50.
Europe retains U.K. Membership, deals a crushing blow to right wing hopes in Germany and France, reminds other potential exiteers that they will be dealt with harshly (not having the same “unique” issues as UK) and is able to maintain trade links with the U.K. with porous migration arrangements in place ( to maintain our economic growth, NHS, transport, agriculture, everything really) which will probably keep migration at roughly the same level.
UK keeps the union in place, maintains and increases trade deals, has a UKIP promoted ( but useless) migration control system in place and the EU Court is back in its box!
No wonder she can’t tell anyone …..and in the end Brexit isn’t Brexit……but who cares…..will Ed Balls win through…….?